Exponential change around us

Think of the Big Bang, a cosmic expansion without which the world as we know it wouldn’t exist, or the Cambrian Explosion millions of years ago where rapid infusion of oxygen in the atmosphere sparked ever-increasing diversity of species.

Closer home, recall the Stone Age. Innovation began as simple tools. Subsequently, in the Iron Age and then the Industrial Age, innovation became faster and more complex. Alongside, trade grew and so did interconnectedness. Telephony brought us closer and the Internet opened up a space for discovery, interaction and innovation like never before. GPS changed us forever. The Information and Digital Ages connected all these different worlds in the click of a button.

Social movements such as the Civil Rights movement in the US, the anti-Apartheid struggle in South Africa, and the anti-colonial Civil Disobedience movement in India started as a spark and eventually led to a new status-quo from which there was no turning back.

In India, waves of change in financial inclusion are visible – from street vendors to farmers, plumbers to temple idols – the economy is undergoing a Cambrian Explosion triggered by digital payments. A minimal disruptive change, Unified Payments Interface (UPI), unknown in 2016, is the trigger for this transition. In 2011, it was forecasted that it would be five decades before 80% of adults in India own a bank account. With UPI, this milestone was achieved in less than one.

In the tropics, 20% of carbon emissions relate to changes in land use. MapBiomas has orchestrated an inspiring network of 100+ co-creators including NGOs, universities and technology companies across 14 countries to combine innovative technology with on-ground insights to produce free, detailed, annual maps and reports that trace land cover and land-use change over time. This enables natural resource and conservation efforts, and improves accountability and policymaking. MapBiomas has now expanded the use cases to track forest fires, surface water and soil quality.

The natural world exhibits exponential change too. Blow on a dandelion and its seeds will spread. These seeds, all independent of the ‘mother’ plant, go far, growing in new places. They sprout in soil, between rocks and through cracks in pavements, sustained by long and deep taproots that find water and nutrients. They show us how something small replicates. Look up at the sky to see thousands of starlings flying together and creating intricate shapes. Known as a murmuration, this phenomenon isn’t random but deeply calibrated. Birds follow simple rules – being at a safe distance from one another, aligning speed and direction with nearby birds, steering towards the centre of the group. These rules enable the flock to move cohesively, despite there being no leader. Murmurations demonstrate coordination and emergence.

As we dug deeper, we connected the dots. All these changes and phenomena demonstrated similar patterns. We saw how shared tools and resources enabled faster and contextual innovation. We saw how many made an idea or innovation their own and shared it with others who, in turn, shared it forward. We decided to test these patterns.